Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by Age and Stage at Diagnosis in Gharbiah, Egypt, over 10 Years (1999–2008)

Background. This study was undertaken to evaluate trends in breast cancer incidence in Egypt from 1999 to 2008 and to make projections for breast cancer occurrence for the years 2009-2015. Patients and Methods. We utilized joinpoint regression and average annual percent change (AAPC) measures with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to describe the trends in breast cancer incidence rates from the Gharbiah Cancer Registry by age and stage at diagnosis and to estimate expected breast cancer caseloads for 2009-2015. Results. From 1999 to 2008, the AAPC in breast cancer incidence rates in Gharbiah significantly increased among women 50 years and older and among localized tumors (AAPC %, 95% CI, 3.1% to 8.0%). Our results predict a significant increase in breast cancer caseloads from 2009 to 2015 among women aged 30-39 (AAPC %, 95% CI, 0.9% to 1.1%) and among women aged 40-49 years (AAPC %, 95% CI, 1.0% to 2.6%). Conclusion. These results have important implications for allocating limited resources, managing treatment needs, and exploring the consequences of prior interventions and/or changing risk factors in Egypt and other developing countries at the same stages of demographic and health transitions.